Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Aurora and Team Falcons meet in the DreamLeague lower bracket semifinal on 23 May, with the winner advancing and the loser eliminated from the tournament. The match is scheduled for 1:00 PM ET and will be played as a best-of-three series. Settlement occurs at 23:00 UTC on the same day, allowing a six-hour window for the match to conclude and results to be confirmed.

The 100% implied probability reflects either extreme confidence in Aurora's superiority or insufficient liquidity to establish a meaningful price discovery mechanism. Historical DreamLeague lower bracket matchups between similarly ranked teams typically settle within 55–70% ranges, suggesting this market may be mispriced or thinly traded. Aurora's recent form and head-to-head record against Falcons would normally anchor expectations; without access to current roster changes or recent tournament placements, traders should verify whether either team has undergone mid-season roster adjustments that could shift competitive balance.

Programmatic traders should monitor DreamLeague's official schedule and social channels for confirmation of the 1:00 PM ET start time, as Dota 2 tournaments frequently experience delays due to technical issues or extended prior matches. The seven-day cancellation threshold creates a settlement edge case if the match is postponed beyond 30 May without completion. Conditional order logic should account for the 50-50 tie resolution clause, though Dota 2 matches rarely end without a victor. Real-time score feeds from ESL or official tournament APIs will be necessary for immediate settlement confirmation once the series concludes.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.