Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The key real-world event is whether Tehran publicly drops permission-based control and accepts ordinary commercial vessels moving through the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorisation, fees, or other restrictions. That matters because the Strait is the world’s most sensitive oil chokepoint, and even partial normalisation can move freight, insurance, and energy prices quickly.

The 4% price implies the market is treating a clean, public surrender of leverage as a low-probability outcome. That is consistent with how traders have read earlier Hormuz episodes: Iran has repeatedly used the Strait as a signalling tool, preferring selective access over an open regime, while insisting on its own security interpretation of passage rights.[1][3] Reports from mid-June describe the route as reopened but still constrained, with controlled crossings and a dual-corridor setup rather than unrestricted transit.[1] In programmatic terms, that means a bot should not key off simple “ships moving” headlines; it needs event parsing for explicit language on *unrestricted* access, fees, authorisation, or written concessions.

The main catalysts are diplomatic announcements, ceasefire text, and any US-Iran-Oman readout that mentions shipping terms. Recent reporting says a proposed deal discussed by multiple outlets would extend the ceasefire and lift shipping restrictions, but still required further endorsement, which makes formal wording and sign-off the critical trigger for a YES resolution.[2][5] A data-driven trader would watch scheduled statements, leaks from mediation channels, and maritime traffic updates, then use conditional orders around headline risk rather than trying to front-run every vessel-count swing.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.