What price will Ethereum hit on May 22?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Ethereum’s spot price is being measured against a 22 May expiry window, so the practical question is whether ETH trades through the relevant strike before settlement closes early on 23 May UTC. For a power user, this is the sort of market to watch with scripted alerts around exchange feeds, index references and threshold crossings, rather than with broad directional conviction alone. Current third-party forecasts are clustered far below the more aggressive upside scenarios: CoinCodex puts ETH at about $2,525 over one month, Changelly’s short-term forecast is around $2,214 by 24 May, and Binance’s near-term model is close to $2,136, all consistent with a market that has not priced in a sharp re-rating.

Comparable cases suggest the current 0% YES probability is not unusual when the event definition is tight and the settlement band sits above the prevailing spot range. Polymarket’s own ETH May market has been trading with 100% odds on the lower price brackets, indicating the crowd is anchoring to a relatively narrow range rather than a breakout. Historically, ETH forecasts have also diverged widely: Changelly cites May 2026 averages near $2,314, while longer-horizon bullish calls from broker notes and strategist commentary run much higher, showing that near-dated options and prediction markets often price the immediate path very differently from end-of-cycle narratives.

The main catalysts are scheduled or mechanical rather than purely news-driven: ETF flow prints, any Ethereum network or staking headlines, and shifts in BTC-led risk appetite can move ETH fast enough to matter before the close. A trader running conditional orders or a bot would typically key off live spot and benchmark feeds, then compare them with the market’s price ladder and expiry definition. Recent market coverage from Changelly and CoinCodex both points to bearish short-term technicals, including weakening moving averages, which helps explain why the upper hit levels remain out of favour despite longer-run bullish commentary.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.