What price will Bitcoin hit on June 13?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's price action on 13 June 2026 will be determined by spot and futures markets across major exchanges. The settlement window closes the following day, meaning any price spike or crash that occurs during that 24-hour window becomes the reference point. A 2% implied probability suggests the crowd expects the price to avoid a specific threshold—likely an extreme move in either direction that would require a significant catalyst or market dislocation.

Historical precedent shows that single-day Bitcoin moves exceeding 15–20% occur roughly 3–4 times annually, typically triggered by regulatory announcements, macroeconomic shocks, or major exchange incidents. The 2023 banking crisis saw a 25% swing in a single day; the 2021 China mining ban produced similar volatility. At 2% probability, this market is pricing in either a narrow target band or an outcome requiring exceptional circumstances. Traders using conditional order logic or bot-driven execution would need to define entry and exit rules well in advance, since real-time price feeds from Kraken, Coinbase, and Bitstamp can diverge by 2–3% during high-volume events.

Catalysts to monitor include Federal Reserve communications (scheduled for mid-June in typical cycles), spot Bitcoin ETF flows, and any regulatory filings from the SEC or CFTC. Geopolitical events or corporate announcements from major Bitcoin holders—such as MicroStrategy or Tesla—can move markets within hours. A power-user approach would involve setting up price alerts at key resistance and support levels identified from 2024–2025 data, then cross-referencing those against order-book depth on multiple venues to gauge genuine liquidity versus spoofing risk.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Review UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.