What price will Bitcoin hit on August 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin’s price on 8 August 2026 settled in the mid-$64,000s, with BTC trading around $64,929 on the day and recording an intraday high of $65,010.57 and low of $64,800.72 in Yahoo Finance data.[3] StatMuse and Twelve Data show a very similar daily close, both placing the August 8 trade-day finish at roughly $64,929–$64,960, which matters for any market keyed to a specific timestamp because the final print, not the day’s range, determines settlement.[1][7]

For a crowd-implied **0% YES** on a price-hit market, the practical read is that the contract is already pricing the target as unreachable before expiry, rather than merely unlikely. Recent trading has been relatively range-bound: OpenBitcoin shows August 2026 finishing its recent sessions near $64,878 after a month that rose 3.3%, while Yahoo’s historical page shows a one-day move of only about -0.49% on 8 August, suggesting limited momentum but still enough intraday movement that a level-based trigger can be crossed even without a sustained trend.[6][3] In a programmatic setup, the key is to map the market’s threshold to an exchange feed and check whether the contract references last price, daily high, or a specific exchange print before the settlement window closes.

Catalysts to watch are the usual BTC rate drivers: spot ETF flow headlines, macro data that shifts dollar liquidity, and any exchange-specific outages or volatility spikes that can cause a brief wick through the target. For this market, a power-user would typically monitor a high-frequency price feed, compare it with a secondary venue, and automate alerts or conditional orders around the contract’s threshold; Robinhood’s own event page shows how these prediction markets are often framed as discrete intraday price levels rather than broad directional bets.[4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track What price will Bitcoin hit on August 8? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.