Total commitments for the Credible public sale on MetaDAO

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is Credible Finance’s curated public sale on MetaDAO, which launched on 13 July 2026 and aims to secure institutional and retail commitments via USDC. The market resolves to “Yes” if the live “committed” figure on the official sale page hits the title’s threshold before the 31 August 2026 deadline, regardless of later refunds.

Historical MetaDAO raises show that soft commits often precede final totals, but actual caps can be selectively honoured. Umbra’s October 2025 raise attracted $155m in committed capital yet the team accepted only $3m, illustrating how high soft-commit figures do not guarantee full uptake [2]. Conversely, Solomon Labs’ MetaDao round hit $102.9m in total commitments with refunds near 92.2%, confirming that platforms can process massive inflows even when final acceptance is partial [9]. With $2.315m in soft commits already from institutional funds, the 99% YES probability reflects confidence that the threshold is well below current soft-commit levels [1].

Traders should monitor the live committed counter on metadao.fi/projects/credible/fundraise for threshold breaches, noting that the sale is powered by Solana and processes volume exceeding $700m prior to launch [1][8]. Key catalysts include any MetaDAO governance announcements adjusting the discretionary cap, Credible’s revenue run-rate disclosures, and Solana network conditions that could delay transaction finality during peak contribution windows. Since the resolution source is the displayed figure at any point before the deadline, programmatic bots can poll the page every few seconds to trigger conditional orders once the threshold is crossed, capturing the event before human traders react.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.