Bitcoin price on May 31?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's spot price at noon ET on 31 May 2026 will determine this market's resolution, with settlement tied to the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close at that specific timestamp. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a particular price bracket or minimal trading activity; either way, the market reflects genuine uncertainty about where spot will trade across a 16-month window. For traders building conditional orders or bot logic around this settlement, the critical detail is the precision requirement: the noon ET close on Binance's 1m timeframe, not a daily or hourly aggregate. Programmes querying the Binance API should target the exact candle closing at 16:00 UTC (noon ET) and account for Binance's occasional data delays or candle corrections within the first few minutes of the next period.

Historical Bitcoin price movements across comparable 16-month horizons show annualised volatility ranging from 40% to 80%, meaning a £30,000 spot price today could reasonably trade anywhere from £18,000 to £55,000 by May 2026 under normal market conditions. The current crowd probability of 0% likely reflects either a bracket so wide it captures all plausible outcomes (making YES trivial) or so narrow it excludes realistic scenarios. Traders should examine the actual bracket thresholds in the market interface to determine whether the implied distribution matches historical precedent or signals a consensus view on Bitcoin's trajectory.

Catalysts shaping Bitcoin's path include Federal Reserve policy shifts, institutional adoption announcements, regulatory clarity from the SEC or international bodies, and macroeconomic recession signals. Halving events—the next scheduled for April 2024—historically create volatility clusters in the months following. Copy-trading platforms and conditional order systems should monitor major news feeds and on-chain metrics (transaction volume, miner revenue, exchange inflows) as leading indicators, though none reliably predict spot price at a specific timestamp 16 months forward.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.