Next Claude Sonnet released by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event at hand is whether Anthropic will publicly launch its next model explicitly named "Sonnet" by 31 July 2026. With the crowd-implied probability sitting at 100% YES, the market treats this release as virtually certain, yet power-users should still evaluate the timeline programmatically rather than assume inevitability.

Historically, Anthropic’s Sonnet releases have followed a tight cadence: Claude 3.5 Sonnet arrived in June 2024, Claude 3.7 Sonnet in February 2025, and Sonnet 4.6 in February 2026 [1][3]. The deprecation of the original Sonnet 4 on 15 June 2026 created immediate pressure for a successor, and the pattern suggests a new Sonnet variant would emerge within months of such a retirement [4]. Given that Sonnet 4.6 was released just four months prior, a 2026 Q2 or Q3 launch aligns with both the deprecation trigger and the established release rhythm [3][5].

Traders should monitor Anthropic’s official announcements, API update logs, and cloud platform listings (AWS Bedrock, Vertex AI, Foundry) for the next Sonnet variant [5]. A recent Reddit discussion speculates that Sonnet 5 could arrive in January 2026, but the actual timeline may be accelerated by the June deprecation [2]. With the settlement window ending in July 2026, any announcement of Sonnet 4.7 or Sonnet 5 before mid-July would confirm the market’s YES outcome. The key catalyst is the next Sonnet release on the Claude Platform or via public API, which Anthropic typically announces with a blog post and immediate availability [5][7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.