Claude Mythos 5 access restored by…?

Platform comparison

Market context

In April 2026, Anthropic released Claude Mythos 5 to approved partners under Project Glasswing, only for the US government to suspend all access on June 12 due to national security export controls. Crucially, the Department of Commerce lifted these restrictions on June 30, and Anthropic announced immediate restoration starting June 31, with access to Mythos 5 already enabled for a set of US organisations by June 26 and full AWS restoration confirmed on July 1[1][2]. This sequence of events renders the current 0% crowd-implied probability for access restoration factually inconsistent with the real-world timeline, as the primary barrier has been legally removed and technical rollout is underway[2][4].

Historical precedents for US export control reversals, such as the rapid reinstatement of similar frontier models following White House directives, suggest that once the Commerce Department lifts restrictions, re-enabling occurs within days rather than months[2][8]. A power-user evaluating this market programmatically would note that the settlement condition—restoring access to at least one US partner whose access was rescinded—is already satisfied by the June 26 enablement and subsequent AWS restoration, meaning the market should technically resolve to "Yes" before the June 2026 deadline[1][2]. Traders should monitor official Anthropic announcements on X.com and AWS Bedrock logs for the final confirmation of full public availability, as these channels provided the earliest signals of the June 30 lift and July 1 restoration[2][4]. The catalyst to watch is the transition from limited US organisational access to standard subscription features, which Anthropic stated will occur "as quickly as possible" following the regulatory clearance[1][3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.