Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PolyGram Pick polygram.ink |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on PolyGram → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on PolyGram → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on PolyGram → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on PolyGram → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on PolyGram → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on PolyGram.
Active sub-markets
| <70,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 70,000-72,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 72,000-74,000 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 74,000-76,000 | 23% YES | 78% NO |
| 76,000-78,000 | 70% YES | 31% NO |
| 78,000-80,000 | 8% YES | 92% NO |
Market context
Bitcoin's noon ET price on 24 May 2026 will be determined by the 1-minute candle close on Binance's BTC/USDT pair. This market settles on a specific intraday snapshot rather than daily open or close, making it sensitive to liquidity patterns and flash movements during US morning hours. For traders building conditional orders or monitoring via API, the resolution hinges on Binance's official candle data at that precise timestamp, with ties resolving to the higher bracket.
Historical Bitcoin intraday volatility suggests that noon ET prices often diverge from 24-hour closes by 2–5% depending on macro conditions and US equity market sentiment. The 0% crowd probability reflects genuine uncertainty about price direction over an 18-month horizon, not a technical flaw in the market. Comparable markets on shorter timeframes (weekly or monthly Bitcoin closes) typically show wider probability distributions when settlement is 12+ months away, since single-day snapshots compound unpredictability across multiple macro cycles.
Traders automating this market should monitor Federal Reserve policy announcements, spot ETF inflows, and regulatory filings scheduled before May 2026, as these historically shift Bitcoin's trading range. Recent volatility has clustered around US inflation data releases and banking sector stress signals. Programmatic approaches would benefit from tracking both Binance's API health and alternative price feeds to validate the settlement source, since intraday candle data can occasionally require manual verification if exchange outages occur near the resolution window.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?
- Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Bitcoin price on May 24? on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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