Bitcoin price on June 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the final closing price of the one-minute Binance candle for BTC/USDT at noon Eastern Time on 28 June 2026, which determines whether Bitcoin trades above a specific bracket. Historical data from that exact date shows Bitcoin crossed the 60,000 USDT threshold early in the day, trading at 60,002.35 USDT with a marginal 0.72% decline [1]. By midday, the price held flat at 60,251 USDT as the Fear & Greed Index plunged to 18, marking extreme fear yet demonstrating a sentiment-price divergence that historically precedes recoveries [2]. This stability despite low conviction weekend consolidation suggests the current 0% crowd-implied probability may be misreading the market’s resilience at this level.

A power-user approaching this programmatically would monitor the unresolved moving average compression from the preceding Friday, where the MA(25), MA(7), and MA(99) remain stacked within 400 USDT of each other [2]. Key catalysts include the sharp drop in trading volume, with BTC volume down 52% and total market cap holding near 2.1 trillion USDT, indicating a low-volatility consolidation phase [2]. Traders should watch for any break in the June 26 lows, which have been defended across three sessions despite the extreme fear reading [2]. Recent Binance market data confirms this pattern of low-volume consolidation, where price holds firm even as sentiment hits cycle lows [2]. The resolution hinges on whether this defensive price action continues through the noon ET settlement window.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.