Bitcoin price on June 13?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's noon ET price on 13 June 2026 will be determined by the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close at that specific timestamp. The market settles against live exchange data rather than a delayed or aggregated source, making it suitable for automated monitoring via Binance API feeds or conditional order systems that can capture intraday volatility. Traders using algorithmic approaches would need to account for the precise UTC-to-ET conversion (currently UTC-4 during daylight saving) and ensure their data pipelines handle the 1-minute granularity without gaps.

The 0% crowd probability reflects genuine uncertainty about price discovery eighteen months forward. Bitcoin's intraday ranges typically span 2–5% on ordinary trading days, though geopolitical events, regulatory announcements, or macroeconomic data releases can drive larger moves. Historical precedent shows that noon ET prices rarely deviate dramatically from daily opens or closes unless a significant catalyst breaks during morning hours; the market's current flatness suggests traders view this as a genuine toss-up rather than a skewed outcome.

Catalysts to monitor include US Federal Reserve policy announcements (typically 14:00 ET, after the settlement window), spot Bitcoin ETF flows, and any regulatory developments from the SEC or CFTC. Institutional rebalancing cycles and options expiry dates in the weeks preceding mid-June could influence intraday volatility patterns. Traders building conditional orders or backtesting strategies should flag these event windows and test how historical volatility clusters around similar dates.

Methodology

We track Bitcoin price on June 13? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.