Bitcoin price on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin will need to print a Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute close at 12:00 ET on 31 July, so the practical question is not where spot trades during the day, but where the specific minute settles. With Bitcoin around the low-60,000s in the supplied market data — including a recent print near $62,622 and July trading that has already ranged from roughly $58,605 to $64,390 — the market is being priced around a fairly tight band rather than a breakout regime.[1][9][11]

That matters for how to read the current 0% YES quote: a flat or near-flat implied probability is only rational if the market expects the settlement candle to sit outside the relevant bracket, but recent comparable polling venues have still clustered the same expiry date in the mid-60,000s, including Robinhood’s July 31 event ladder and Predicate’s volume concentrated in the 60,000-64,000 ranges.[2][3] For a programmatic trader, this is the kind of event to model off exchange microstructure rather than macro conviction: spot reference, candle timing, and the exact bracket cut-off dominate outcome risk, so conditional orders and bot logic should focus on the 11:59-12:00 ET window and the Binance 1-minute close, not the hourly trend.

Catalysts that could move the settlement minute include ETF flow headlines, any large US macro print landing in the same session, and sudden crypto-specific volatility from liquidations or exchange-driven order flow. Recent commentary has shown wide dispersion in short-horizon BTC expectations, with one July 31 forecast round ranging from roughly $56,450 to $64,500, underscoring how sensitive end-of-month pricing can be to late-session moves rather than the month’s average level.[7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.