Bitcoin price on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin's spot price at noon ET on 13 August 2026 will determine this market's outcome. The resolution mechanism pulls the 1-minute candle close from Binance's BTC/USDT pair, making this a precise intraday snapshot rather than a daily close. For automated traders and bot operators, this specificity demands careful handling of timezone conversion and API query timing—the Binance REST endpoint returns candle data with minimal latency, but conditional order systems must account for potential clock skew between execution environments and exchange servers. A 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a particular price range or minimal liquidity across all brackets; either way, the market's utility lies in stress-testing execution infrastructure against a fixed future timestamp.

Historical Bitcoin volatility over comparable 24-hour windows shows intraday swings of 3–8% during periods of moderate activity, though noon ET closures have historically anchored closer to daily opens than to daily extremes. The 0% reading likely reflects that the market's bracket structure has pushed all probability mass into a single range, making this an edge case for calibration rather than a genuine consensus forecast. Traders evaluating this market as a hedging tool should recognise that a noon-specific close introduces execution risk absent from daily-settlement contracts—slippage, liquidity concentration, and flash-move recovery all compress into a single minute.

Catalysts between now and August 2026 include US Federal Reserve policy announcements, spot Bitcoin ETF flows, and macroeconomic data releases, all of which can shift intraday volatility profiles. For programmatic traders, monitoring Binance's order book depth and recent volume patterns at the noon ET slot will provide more actionable signal than the current crowd probability alone.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.