Claude 5 released by…?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Anthropic must release Claude 5 as a publicly accessible product by the end of 2025 for this market to resolve affirmatively. The release window is tight—roughly 16 months from the market's creation—and requires either general availability or an open beta/rolling waitlist mechanism. Closed beta access, enterprise-only arrangements, or API-only availability do not satisfy settlement criteria. The specificity around public accessibility matters for programmatic monitoring: traders need to track official Anthropic announcements and product pages rather than relying on leaked benchmarks or researcher access.

Anthropic's release cadence provides the primary historical anchor. Claude 3 arrived in March 2024 across three capability tiers (Haiku, Sonnet, Opus), with Sonnet reaching public availability within weeks. Claude 3.5 Sonnet launched in June 2024, again with rapid public rollout. A 12-month gap between major numbered releases would place Claude 5 in the March–June 2025 window, aligning with observed patterns. However, the company has shown willingness to extend development cycles when pursuing capability jumps; Claude 3 to 3.5 took three months, but architectural leaps could stretch timelines further.

Traders should monitor Anthropic's quarterly announcements and developer conference schedules through early 2025. Recent statements from leadership regarding safety evaluations and scaling approaches will signal development velocity. The settlement deadline of 31 December 2025 leaves minimal buffer after typical Q4 release windows, making autumn 2025 announcements critical. Any delay into 2026 would resolve the market negatively, regardless of development progress.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Review UK?

Zero. Polymarket Review UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Review UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.