In this guide
Prediction markets focused on science and technology draw participants with exceptional domain knowledge — academics, technologists, and science communicators capable of interpreting technical breakthroughs ahead of mainstream market movements. These venues systematically favour those with specialised expertise.
Active Science & Technology Prediction Markets (2026)
Space Exploration
- SpaceX Starship reaches orbit with payload: ~72-78%
- Artemis Moon landing in 2026: ~35-42%
- SpaceX Mars mission launch before 2030: ~55-62%
- Commercial space station operational in 2026: ~28-34%
Artificial Intelligence
- AGI claimed by major lab before 2028: ~22-28%
- AI system passes ARC-AGI benchmark (100%): ~38-44%
- EU AI Act High-Risk classification of LLMs: ~62-68%
Biotechnology & Medicine
- CRISPR gene therapy approved for new indication in US: ~65-72%
- GLP-1 drug market exceeds $150B annual revenue: ~55-62%
- Alzheimer's treatment showing 50%+ disease modification: ~28-34%
Clean Energy
- Nuclear fusion net energy gain sustained for 60+ seconds: ~35-42%
- Global solar capacity exceeds 5 TW: ~65-70%
- Solid-state battery in commercial EV by major automaker: ~38-44%
Edge Sources in Science/Tech Markets
- Preprint repositories (arXiv, bioRxiv): emerging scholarship circulating before formal peer-review cycles complete
- Patent registrations: technological breakthroughs frequently leave a trail through patent application activity
- Regulatory approval schedules: FDA and EMA timelines shape biotech market expectations
- Technical symposium talks: industry presentations from SpaceX, NASA, and leading technology firms reveal strategic direction
FAQ
- How do science prediction markets resolve?
- Resolution relies on independently verifiable evidence: company announcements, published research in peer-reviewed journals, official regulatory determinations, or established news organisations (AP, Reuters).
- Are there niche science markets not listed on PolyGram?
- PolyGram features widely-followed science markets. Specialised or obscure topics often find homes on Manifold Markets, which operates with play-money contracts created by users.
- Do researchers trade prediction markets about their own field?
- Absolutely — and they typically command the strongest informational advantage. Prevailing views within the research community (evident at academic conferences) routinely shift market odds weeks ahead of broader price movements.