In this guide
Verdict: Polymarket dominates in terms of depth and breadth of available contracts. Kalshi offers the only pathway for US-based traders seeking regulatory compliance. Manifold delivers a playful environment centred on community-driven forecasting without financial stakes. European participants will find Polymarket through PolyGram to be the optimal choice.
Prediction markets have surged dramatically throughout 2024 and into 2025. This guide examines how the leading venues stack up against one another.
Polymarket — The Liquidity Leader
| Liquidity | Over $1.5B in yearly turnover. Most liquid order books across political and digital-asset categories |
| Markets | 1,000+ live contracts spanning politics, blockchain, athletics, research, and entertainment |
| Fees | Zero house fee. Typical bid-ask spread ranges from 1 to 3 cents |
| Currency | USDC settlement on Polygon network (blockchain wallet required) |
| Access | Worldwide availability excluding US. Identity verification mandatory |
| Best for | Professional participants armed with proprietary research or analytical advantage |
Kalshi — US-Regulated Alternative
Kalshi stands as the sole CFTC-authorised prediction exchange operating within the United States. It provides a pathway for domestic traders excluded from Polymarket and has expanded substantially. Trade-offs include a narrower selection of available contracts relative to Polymarket, alongside regulatory constraints that restrict certain market categories from launching.
Manifold Markets — Social Prediction
Manifold operates on a virtual-currency model (termed "mana") rather than genuine financial settlement. It functions as an excellent venue for honing forecasting abilities and participating in collective prediction exercises — though it remains unsuitable for those pursuing financial returns. The platform hosts more than 10,000 user-generated contracts.
Metaculus — Forecasting Platform
Metaculus aggregates quantitative predictions submitted by its analyst community. Financial incentives are absent, yet the platform excels at establishing prediction credentials and addressing complex global scenarios. Academic institutions frequently reference Metaculus when examining forecast calibration and methodology.
Betfair — The Legacy Exchange
Betfair represents the pioneering betting exchange model, processing substantial annual volumes across athletics and electoral markets. Strengths include fiat-currency settlement, FCA oversight, and robust sports-market depth. Limitations encompass 2-5% commission levied on net profits, absence of blockchain-based assets, and comparatively limited political-market coverage when measured against Polymarket.
Our Recommendation for 2025
For participants outside the US seeking maximum market depth and contract selection: Polymarket accessed through PolyGram. PolyGram streamlines the technical barriers inherent to blockchain interaction whilst preserving complete access to Polymarket's underlying liquidity pools. Start trading on PolyGram →